Time for a Second Opinion on Femicide Stats?

Below follows an email from Ludwig Churr to the Parliamentary Police Portfolio Committee and the Minister of Health regarding significant inaccuracies, omissions, and anomalies in research presented to the committee by GFSA. Supporting documentation is included below the email in verbatim as it was received.


11 August 2015

Distribution list:-

The Honourable Ms Makhotso Magdeline Sotyu, Deputy Minister of Police

Copies to:-

The Honourable Dr Motsoaledi Aaron Makishe, Minister of Health

The Honourable Mr. Francois Beukman, Police Portfolio Committee

Member of Parliament Dianne Kohler Barnard, Police Portfolio Committee

Member of Parliament Dr. Pieter Groenewald, Police Portfolio Committee

Groote Schuur Hospital Dr. Bernadette Eick

Gun Free South Africa Adele Kirsten et al




Dear Honourable Deputy Minister of Police and other Honourable Parliament members and recipients.

During the National Firearms Summit 2015 on 24 and 25 March 2015, the most Honourable Ms Makhotso Magdeline Sotyu stated that for a patient to be cured, that the patient must admit that there is a problem. And truth must be told honestly and truthfully if a cure is desired.

During a follow-up session on 3 June 2015, the most Honourable Ms. Makhotso Sotyu gave some statistics on Femicide. In answer to my question, it was admitted that the statistics have been supplied by Gun Free South Africa. http://www.parliament.gov.za/live/content.php?Item_ID=7621

It was at the same meeting that Gun Free South Africa made a submission to Parliament. My press release (Copy attached for reference) was issued and submitted to Parliament based on a hardcopy of the GFSA press release that I received on request. The recommendations in the GFSA submission was based on a recommendation of a professor made on Groote Schuur Hospital Stationary. Although impressive initials and Groote Schuur Hospital stationary was used to bolster the recommendations, there were no actual research data to support the recommendations made by the Groote Schuur professor.  On what was GFSA statistical data based recommendations based? Statistical data that was supplied and accepted as based on research. Recommendations made to Police Portfolio Committee based on no research is reckless and dangerous.

The Professor and Groote Schuur Hospital was requested by email, and in person, to supply research data supporting the recommendations made to the Police Portfolio Committee. No research has been received. The recommendations made by Gun Free South Africa should be ignored as their recommendations, based by a professor on Groote Schuur Hospital letterhead, has no supporting research.  Groote Schuur Hospital is copied with this email for their right to reply.

In the face of no supporting research for the above, the rest of this email will deal with the actual “other research” that Gun Free South Africa used for their Femicide statistical claims made to the Police Portfolio Committee. Although the research paper was issued by SAMRC, many anomalies and questions and contradictions were noted and will be dealt with in detail.


It is respectfully suggested that all Honourable Ministers, and members of Parliament, should consider obtaining a second opinion as to what cure is required. A second email dealing more specifically with NIMSS research reports for 2003, 2007 will be forwarded to the same distribution list. Regrettably it takes many thousands of words to correct one distortion. It is regrettable that so many corrections are needed. It is hoped that the “patient” will now consider obtaining a second opinion in light of all the errors and comments.

Attached two documents are  detailed research paper analysis and my previous press release.

Please note that there are many more supporting documents than can be supplied if required.

I remain


Yours faithfully


3 thoughts on “Time for a Second Opinion on Femicide Stats?

  1. I know for an absolute certainty that the MRC Femicide study was refuted and Ms Abrams refuted none of the claims suffice to say the “model” used to determine the “impact” was concocted by a bunch of researchers who have a history being vehemently anti-gun. If memory is correct Paul Oxley and myself made those submissions. It’s about time the firearm rights movement started waking up and filing all this information they simply throw away and expect somebody else to find for them.

    Liked by 1 person

  2. This needs to be checked but at the time the initial research was done whites had the lowest femicide rate and it is common cause the highest per capita firearm ownership which completely destroys the MRC claims. No answers was received from the MRC spokes person with the exception of the wild claims made were based on an epidemiological model, a Ms Abrams. I am sure I have a record of the correspondence.

    Epidemiology is the science that studies the patterns, causes, and effects of health and disease conditions in defined populations. It is the cornerstone of public health, and informs policy decisions and evidence-based practice by identifying risk factors for disease and targets for preventive healthcare. Epidemiologists help with study design, collection, and statistical analysis of data, and interpretation and dissemination of results (including peer review and occasional systematic review). Epidemiology has helped develop methodology used in clinical research, public health studies, and, to a lesser extent, basic research in the biological sciences.


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